The Matcha Shortage, Rice Prices, and the Future of Japanese Tea

The Matcha Shortage, Rice Prices, and the Future of Japanese Tea

It was early April 2025, and we were catching up with our tea supplier—something we do every year around harvest season. We chatted about the usual: weather, crop quality, tea trends. But then they said something that made us pause: the price of Genmaicha would be going up.

Why? Not because of the tea itself—but because of rice.

It caught us off guard—we hadn’t expected it. The spotlight has been on matcha lately, with its rapid rise from ceremonial tradition to global obsession. But Genmaicha? It’s quietly stayed in the background. Steady. Comforting. Unassuming.

That conversation lingered in our minds. Later that evening, sipping a warm cup of Genmaicha, we found ourselves reflecting on something: while matcha takes centre stage, there’s another story quietly unfolding in the background. It’s what sparked this post—a closer look at two teas we love, both rooted in tradition, both now navigating a time of change.

How Matcha Is Made: A Slow Process in a Fast-Moving World

Let’s start with matcha—the bright green powder you’ve seen in everything from lattes to skincare. While demand has exploded globally, the way it’s made hasn’t changed.

Matcha begins with tencha (碾茶), a green tea cultivated specifically for this purpose. In the final 20 to 30 days before harvest, the leaves are carefully shaded to boost their theanine levels—the amino acid responsible for matcha's smooth, umami flavour. When harvest arrives, the leaves are often hand-picked with great care. After harvesting, the leaves are gently steamed and dried. Their shape is carefully preserved throughout the process, remaining intact until the final step: slow stone-grinding into the fine, vivid powder we know as matcha.

Here’s the challenge: tencha is harvested only once a year, and quantities are limited. In 2023, tencha accounted for just 5.6% of Japan’s total tea production—a small fraction compared to the 51.4% dedicated to aracha (荒茶), the base material for teas like sencha and hōjicha. (Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

It puts things into perspective. Matcha may be everywhere now, but the tea behind it remains a rare and carefully crafted product.

The Aging Hands Behind the Leaves

Matcha production isn’t just slowed by its careful process—it’s also shaped by deeper challenges within Japan’s farming landscape.

Japan’s tea industry is feeling the weight of an aging workforce. A large share of tea farmers still active today are in their 60s, 70s, or older. But younger generations aren’t entering the field at the same rate, leaving behind a widening gap in generational succession.

(Data from MAFF; chart translated into English)

We’ve seen the effects firsthand on trips to farms in Kyushu. In many areas, especially the hilly regions where mechanization is difficult, the physical demands are simply too high for aging farmers to manage alone. As a result, more and more tea fields are being left untended.

This shift isn’t just visible in the fields—it shows up in the numbers, too. Between 2008 and 2024, Japan’s total tea production declined from 96,000 to 74,000 tons, while cultivated areas decreased by more than 25% (Source: MAFF). These numbers tell a clear story: Japan’s tea-growing regions are shrinking—and that shift may quietly reshape the future of tea cultivation.

A Global Craze Meets Local Limits

If demand had stayed steady, the industry might have had time to adapt. But matcha has become a global phenomenon. With more people looking for healthier options and alternatives to coffee—something with less crash and more calm—matcha has stepped in to fill that space. Here in Toronto, it’s hard to go a day without spotting it: in lattes, desserts, skincare, smoothies, even supplements. And it’s not just local— more than half of Japan’s matcha production is now exported overseas.

Tea farmers are doing what they can to keep up—especially in places like Kagoshima in Kyushu, where new matcha fields are beginning to emerge. It's an encouraging trend, but change like this doesn’t happen overnight.

It’s a tricky balance. The world can’t seem to get enough of matcha, but the way it’s grown and crafted is rooted in slow, seasonal rhythms. Tea farmers are shifting towards matcha to meet demands, and new regions are joining in—but tradition doesn’t move at the speed of trends. That gap between demand and production is exactly where the current pressure is building.

Now Let's Talk Rice: The Heart of Genmaicha

For those unfamiliar, Genmaicha is a blend of green tea and roasted brown rice. Like other Japanese teas, it’s feeling the effects of broader industry trends—shrinking farmland, an aging workforce—but rice is its own story. And while it may seem like a humble pantry staple, rice has recently become one of the biggest challenges facing this beloved blend.

The Heatwave That Shook the Fields

In the summer of 2023, Japan was hit by record-breaking heat. Rice paddies struggled under the pressure, and yields dropped. According to MAFF, rice production declined by 5.4% compared to the year before. On top of that, the quality took a hit: the percentage of top-grade rice dropped, stressed by the extreme heat.

A Surge in Demand

At the same time, demand for rice spiked. With Japan reopening its borders and the yen staying weak, over 21 million visitors between January and July 2024. Many came for the food—and premium Japanese rice was high on the list.

Meanwhile, Japanese households were also shifting back to rice. With inflation hitting imported goods like bread and pasta, many families returned to plain white rice as a staple. Rice purchases rose nearly 10% year-over-year in May and June alone. By the end of 2024, that surge added up to an estimated 70,000 additional tons consumed. (Source: NHKOn top of that, more families began stockpiling rice at home as part of their disaster preparedness—adding yet another layer to the growing demand.

All of these factors happened at the same time. It wasn’t one single cause—but a mix of strained harvests, rising demand, and shifting consumption patterns happening all at once.

Rice Prices Keep Climbing

By April 2025, rice prices had risen for 16 weeks straight. A 5kg bag now costs about ¥4,214—roughly $30 USD or $40 CAD—more than double the price of the previous year.

The government has stepped in, releasing over 210,000 tons from stockpiles and even importing rice from South Korea—something that hasn’t happened in over 25 years. But with demand still high and distribution channels strained, analysis predict that it may take another year before things stabilize.

What This Means for Genmaicha Lovers

Genmaicha is a tea rooted in harmony: tea and rice in balance. So when one ingredient sees a sudden surge in cost, the entire equation shifts.

We’re doing our best to absorb the changes on our end. We know how much Genmaicha means to many of you, and we want to keep it as accessible as possible. If anything changes, we’ll be transparent about it.

Through Change, Genmaicha Stays the Same

The world around tea is changing—fast. But Genmaicha remains a cup of calm. It doesn’t chase trends. It doesn’t need a spotlight. And yet, it offers so much: warmth, steadiness, tradition.

Whether it’s your daily comfort or your weekend wind-down, Genmaicha invites you to slow down and savor.

We’ll keep you posted on what’s happening behind the scenes—because every cup has a little more to it than meets the eye.

genmaicha Japanese green tea Matcha Tea Culture Tea History

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